Politics & Policy

A (deliberately) leaked report has revealed what investors and analysts have suspected all along: the "Committee to Save the Dollar" is real. Evidently, back in March, when the credit crisis was threatening to spiral out of control, the world's leading bankers were busying themselves preparing a plan to prop up the ailing the Dollar. Their rationale is/was that a more valuable Dollar would do more to relieve inflation (via lower food and commodity prices) and ultimately be easier to implement than a worldwide hike in interest rates. Under the plan, the Central Banks of Europe and Japan would join the Federal Reserve Board to coordinate the large-scale sale of Yen and Euro assets, in exchange for Dollars.

When the credit crisis kicked off in 2007, several analysts quietly began to circulate the theory of "decoupling," which asserted the global economy was strong enough to weather a downturn in the US economy. In other words, it was expected that the credit crisis would be contained within the US, and the rest of the world would plod along, unaffected. This notion now appears to be completely without merit, except in a few isolated cases.

When the credit crisis kicked off in 2007, several analysts quietly began to circulate the theory of "decoupling," which asserted the global economy was strong enough to weather a downturn in the US economy. In other words, it was expected that the credit crisis would be contained within the US, and the rest of the world would plod along, unaffected. This notion now appears to be completely without merit, except in a few isolated cases.

Almost all of the speculation surrounding the Chinese Yuan is aimed at predicting the point at which the currency will stop rising. Will it stop at 6.5? 6? 5? 1? But what if the currency has already peaked, at least temporarily?

Almost all of the speculation surrounding the Chinese Yuan is aimed at predicting the point at which the currency will stop rising. Will it stop at 6.5? 6? 5? 1? But what if the currency has already peaked, at least temporarily?

As the Chinese Yuan has appreciated over the last three years, and even in the decade leading up to the sudden revaluation, a tremendous amount of speculative "hot money" poured into China. Periodically, the government and Central bank have attempted to stem some of these inflows by creating deliberately unfavorable conditions for foreigners to invest in China. Witness the unnaturally low interest rates and the one-way convertibility of the Chinese Yuan. Now, with inflation running at a 10-year high, the government is becoming more serious in its efforts to clamp down on some of the factors that are driving demand. As a result, it altered its system for governing forex and will increase its oversight over the entities and businesses that import capital into China.

Last week, the Forex Blog covered an IMF report that claimed the period of Dollar hegemony is nowhere near finished. This view appears to be widely held, and an American economist argued in a recent op-ed piece that the Euro still trails the Dollar in terms of global prominence. Certainly, he acknowledged the collapse in confidence that has sent the Dollar spiraling downward over the last few years. Central Banks are holding an ever-increasing portion of their reserves in alternative currencies, namely Euros. Many new bond and stock issues are denominated in Euros. But ultimately, the Dollar is still Numero Uno.

The exchange rate between Zimbabwe's local currency and the US Dollar is currently 110 Billion:1, give or take a few zeroes. This complete collapse in confidence surrounding the currency is redolent of post-war Germany, when a wheelbarrow full of Deutsch Mark was required to buy a loaf of bread. The same hyperinflation, estimated at 100,000,000% on an annualized basis, has gripped Zimbabwe, causing prices to skyrocket and the local currency to plummet. As a result, the Central Bank has announced a plan to redenominate the currency by removing 10 zeroes from notes currently in circulation.

By one measure, the US Dollar has lost 33.8% of its value under President George Bush, its worst performance by far under any one administration. The burgeoning twin deficits, lackluster economic performance, as well as the current environment of stagflation have all contributed to a dramatic and unprecedented loss of confidence in the Dollar. While investors are understandably optimistic about the prospect of a new President, come January, they are ambivalent as to whether it is Barack Obama or instead John McCain that is ultimately elected. Since the Dollar seems to have bottomed out anyway, the new President stands to preside over a recovery of the Dollar. Reuters reports:

In a recent report on the state of the Dollar, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared that the Dollar's unprecedented period of dominance will not likely come to an end anytime soon. This assertion seems to sharply contradict the 25% depreciation (in trade-weighted terms) that has taken place since 2002. Moreover, many countries have liberalized their exchange rate regimes, such that they no longer need to maintain large stores of Dollar assets. The report's conclusion draws strength from another period of sustained Dollar depreciation (which took place from 1985 and 1991), which was likewise not able to shake the currency loose from its moorings.